Benjamin Netanyahu faces his first election since the October 7 attacks on Tuesday, against a backdrop of a deeply divided Israeli society.
Polls on Friday put the governing far-right coalition almost level with the main opposition bloc around the hawkish former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with half a million first time voters due to cast their ballot.
The election marks the first chance for voters to deliver a verdict on the worst security failure in generations as well as the wars that followed, with almost all Jewish-led parties now opposed to the ‘two-state solution’ that has long defined diplomacy with the Palestinians.
Netanyahu, 77, boasted of his endorsement from Donald Trump on the eve of the election, suggesting that the US president was willing to “finally remove the Iranian threat” but only so long as Netanyahu himself remains in power.
But the White House said that the United States would not be attacking Iran “at any time prior to the midterm elections” in November.
Preview: Gadi Eisenkot launches a challenge to Netanyahu's reign... but is yet to find a clear path to power
Former military chief Eisenkot has presented himself as one of the possible outlets for change.
Eisenkot, who lost a son in Gaza, has projected an image as a political outsider and security hawk whose humble background and family sacrifices stand in vivid contrast to Netanyahu's decades in high office and lingering corruption cases.
Both Eisenkot and Netanyahu, along with the leaders of nearly all other Jewish-led parties, oppose the establishment of a future independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
They both say that Israel must retain ultimate security control over all territory between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea. And they agree that Israeli troops must not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is disarmed.
Eisenkot has framed the continued rule of Hamas in Gaza as a failure of state, vowing that within 18 months of taking office he would ensure the administration had been replaced, either through a US-brokered plan or through military force.
But to unseat Netanyahu, he is likely to rely on the support of the Democrats, including the rump of the once dominant centre-left Labour Party that has has withered as the country has shifted to the right.
Preview: Survivalist Netanyahu faces another test after 19 years in office
Netanyahu heads into this election with 19 accumulated years in office since he was first chosen as prime minister in 1996.
The office has no term limits and a prime minister can serve an unlimited number of four-year terms so long as they maintain the confidence of a majority in the Knesset, or parliament.
Since his last election in 2022, ‘Bibi’ has led Israel through its response to the October 7 Hamas attacks, the subsequent war in Gaza and hostage crisis, a ground invasion of Lebanon, strikes on Syria, attacks from and against Iran, and, most recently, into the ongoing conflict with Tehran alongside the United States.
Domestically, he is still embroiled in a long-running corruption case, after being indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three cases, accused of receiving expensive gifts in exchange for political favours. The 77-year-old has called the case a witch hunt and proceedings stalled during the war in Gaza.
Netanyahu is also under an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for suspected crimes against humanity and war crimes, and faces criticism from abroad for presiding over a rapid expansion of settlements in the West Bank.
Many Israelis now say it is time for a change in the seat of government. A poll of 4,000 Israeli voters this month predicted that Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure only 19 seats, down from 32 currently, while the opposition, led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, could secure the most with 20.
The key players in Israel’s first election since October 7
Israelis are set to vote on October 27 in the first national elections since the deadly October 7 attacks, and the devastating Gaza war that followed.
The Independent looks at the key figures in the looming election:
Good evening and welcome to our coverage of the Israeli election
Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government faces an existential election on Tuesday as voters deliver their verdict three years since the country’s greatest security failure in generations.
The opposition is clustered around centrist former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot. But he and an array of other parties ranging from the rump of the centre-left to the right, also have no clear path to unseat the survivalist Netanyahu.
Follow along for our coverage of the Israeli legislative elections