Police Scotland could lose around 1,260 officers and staff in a single year if ministers fail to increase the force's budget.
The Scottish Police Authority (SPA) warned that a flat cash funding settlement "would devastate the service", while Police Scotland said inadequate investment would constrain its ability to tackle growing threats from states including Iran, China and Russia.
In submissions to Holyrood's Criminal Justice Committee, both the SPA and Police Scotland said there was an £80 million black hole in the finances.
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Police Scotland's budget is 86% pay and workforce costs. The government's commitment to no compulsory redundancies means savings could only come through natural attrition and stopping recruitment altogether.
Even then, the SPA says, the sums would not add up, with Police Scotland needing to shed 958 officers and 302 staff in a single year if ministers hold its budget flat in 2027-28.
A total recruitment freeze would take officer numbers below 15,600, the lowest since 2003-04, and a further 400 or so officers would still have to go in 2028-29 to balance the books.
Police Scotland's submission to the committee puts its total ask at £1,688.7m for day-to-day spending in 2027-28, an increase of £110.6m, plus £114.4m of capital.
It splits the increase into £78.8m of what it describes as unavoidable pressures and £31.8m of targeted investment, including 172 officers and 262 staff for work on violence against women and girls, online child abuse and community policing.
Police Scotland Chief Constable Jo Farrell to be sacked (Image: Andrew Milligan/PA)
The force said: "In short, if we cannot secure sufficient investment, Police Scotland would prioritise emergency response and will target threat, harm and risk at the highest levels.
"Prevention and early interventions will be limited, non-emergency contact will take longer and response times overall will increase."
The warnings come as Police Scotland faces growing and increasingly complex demands on its officers.
Emergency 999 calls have climbed 10.1%, while domestic abuse crimes have reached 24,018 in the year to date.
The national force handled more than 230,000 mental health incidents over the past year, 85% of which involved no crime, taking up 775,326 policing hours, the equivalent of 481 full-time officers.
Officers also face escalating public disorder, online child sexual exploitation, and hostile foreign state threats.
Police Scotland said: "The threat from foreign states and their proxies is putting lives at risk and undermining our democratic values. Scotland is not immune to these threats. As a result, Police Scotland must strengthen our capacity and capability to deal with state threats."
The force pointed to comments this month by Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5, that the UK had seen threats from foreign adversaries quadruple in the past decade, with more resources devoted to tackling state threats than during the Cold War.
Police Scotland said counter-terrorism policing was dealing with increasingly aggressive threats from China and Russia, adding that 50 arrests had been made across the UK over the past year in connection with activity linked to Iran.
There is also growing concern over the number of officers actually available for frontline duties.
Figures presented by the force show 1,656 officers are currently on modified duties and unable to be deployed, while a workforce survey returned a score of just 29% when officers, staff and volunteers were asked whether there were enough people to do their jobs.
The Scottish Police Federation said more than one million working days have been lost to sickness since 2020, with psychological conditions accounting for a significant proportion.
In their submission, the Association of Scottish Police Superintendents (ASPS) warned that local visibility has been reduced to an emergency "fire service" model, while police staff union Unison warned that civilian staff cuts are leading to officers backfilling administrative roles at far higher public expense.
Scotland’s prison estate has been struggling under the weight of overcrowding in recent years (Image: Danny Lawson/PA)
The service is also coming under pressure because of the government's emergency early release schemes to tackle prison overcrowding.
Police Scotland told MSPs that Scottish Prison Service data shows that of 286 prisoners released early in late 2025, 34 were returned to custody within months, well before their original release dates.
HM Inspectorate of Constabulary in Scotland said ministers in trying to alleviate the problems in prison had merely transferred this pressure to the street.
"The early release from prison provides an increase in risk in the community," HMICS said. "Information on reoffending needs to be considered but this additional demand to keep communities safe is being transferred from the prison estate to community resources and policing. This additionality has not been resourced."
The SPA says policing has already had to make cuts of around £100m in recent years.
It adds that police reform has delivered annual savings of £291m and £2.5 billion cumulatively, more than double the target set out in the original business case before the merger of the forces, and that there is "limited scope" for significant savings without investment in areas such as digital and estates.
"Given the extreme nature of the actions required to deliver these savings, a flat cash funding scenario is not achievable in year and would devastate the service," the Authority said.
Police are not alone in warning of the consequences. The Crown Office says its indicative 2027-28 budget of £234m, compared with £240.5m, would put around 100 posts at risk. The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service says it needs £376.8m to maintain current capacity, against a modelled settlement of £353.6m.
Scottish Conservative justice spokesman Stephen Kerr said: "This is a damning warning from the Scottish Police Authority.
"The body responsible for overseeing Police Scotland is spelling out the damage a flat budget would inflict. SNP ministers have no excuse for ignoring it.
"To press ahead would be a reckless betrayal of the public and the officers who protect them.
"Communities would pay the price through fewer officers available to catch criminals, protect victims and respond when people need help. An already overstretched workforce would be left to pick up the pieces."
Police Scotland has already made £100m of cuts in recent years (Image: Colin Mearns)
"Ministers must provide the funding to prevent these devastating losses," Mr Kerr added.
"If they refuse, they cannot hide behind the Chief Constable or blame 'operational decisions'. They will be choosing to weaken policing, knowing exactly what is at stake. The responsibility will be theirs."
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Responding, Justice Secretary Neil Gray said: "Our police perform a vital role keeping Scotland's communities safe, which is why we have invested record funding of more than £1.7 billion for policing in 2026-27.
"We will continue to work with Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority to understand their 2027-28 budget requirements which will feed into the Scottish Government budget process."