Israelis will head to the polls on Tuesday 27 October to cast their vote to elect the Knesset, after three years of war waged in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
Much of the election is centred around Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking another term after a combined 19 years in power, but neither he nor the opposition has a clear path to a governing majority.
Due to the fragmented political system, the country may have to wait weeks or even months before a new government is confirmed.
How do the elections work?
There are 38 different parties contesting the election, but most will not get enough votes to secure one of the 120 seats in the Knesset.
Israeli elections are based on nationwide proportional representation. Citizens cast votes for a single party – not for individual candidates – and the party’s number of seats is determined by the proportion of the national vote it receives.
To actually enter the Knesset, a party must receive at least 3.25 per cent of the vote, or four seats.
Historically, no single party has won a majority, so governments are formed by a coalition. If no one manages to form a coalition with a 61-seat majority, citizens return to the ballot box.
When will the result be announced?
Polls open at 7am local time and close at 10pm that night. The official results will be confirmed on Tuesday 4 November.
But the whole process will take much longer, ranging from 20 to 100 days. In the past two decades, no government has been sworn in in less than 50 days.
After a coalition agreement is signed, the Knesset convenes a special session during which the designated prime minister presents the new government and its policy agenda.
A formal vote is then held, and if the new government wins the vote, it starts its tenure.
What are the main issues at stake?
The election is viewed domestically as one of the most consequential in the history of Israel.
The outcome could have profound consequences for Palestinians and Israel’s relations with neighbouring states, as well as international partners like the US and Europe.
Some of the main issues centre on the debate over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, how the state should investigate its inability to prevent the October 7 2023 Hamas attacks and future concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.
Israel’s wars have also put pressure on the economy, so the cost of living will definitely weigh on people’s minds when casting their votes. For context, the state’s defence budget has doubled since 2023.
Who is leading the polls?
Two main blocs – of nearly equal weight – are facing off against each other. One is an alliance of far-right parties dominated by Netanyahu, and the other camp is led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defence Forces.
Current polling puts the two in a tight race to become prime minister. But the PM’s coalition is likely to fall short of a majority, according to a new poll reported by The Independent .
Based on responses, the most likely scenario would see the right-wing “Haredi” bloc – including Netanyahu’s Likud and Shas – securing 52-54 seats. That includes a drop in seats for Likud from 32 to 19 and a decrease to six for Shas.
Meanwhile, the Eisenkot-led opposition is predicted to secure the most seats, although other liberal parties it could form a coalition with are forecast to collectively pool fewer votes than their right-wing partners.
Dr Nimrod Nir, of Agam Labs, said that “the real political drama will begin the morning after the election”.
“Israel’s election is not a single game, but a tournament – and election day is only the opening round,” he added.
“Our polling suggests that neither bloc is likely to secure a governing majority, leaving three possible outcomes: a unity government bringing Netanyahu together with more liberal parties, an alternative coalition backed by Arab parties, or yet another election.”