Crime reduction claims raise questions over evidence behind prevention programme

Crime reduction claims raise questions over evidence behind prevention programme

More than 35,000 people received support through services commissioned by the York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority during 2025/26, but questions remain about the evidence linking its prevention programme to a reported reduction in crime.

The Combined Authority said crime across the region fell by 2.8%, equivalent to 1,290 fewer victims of crime, in a press release issued on October 16.

The announcement highlighted the authority’s prevention-first approach, which includes services supporting victims of crime, people experiencing domestic abuse, vulnerable residents and those at risk of offending.

However, the headline figures alone do not establish how much the commissioned services contributed to the reported reduction in crime or how the benefits of the programme were distributed across York and North Yorkshire.

Questions over the figures

The Combined Authority reported that more than 35,000 people were directly supported during 2025/26, alongside almost 45,000 referrals to commissioned services.

The services cover a range of areas, including victim support, domestic abuse interventions, sexual violence support, restorative justice, mental health and vulnerability services, and community safety initiatives.

The authority said the work was helping victims recover from crime, supporting vulnerable people and addressing the causes of offending before problems escalated.

In response to questions from The Harrogate Informer, the authority confirmed that the 2.8% crime reduction figure had been taken from an online public meeting held in July.

It also supplied a presentation from a subsequent online public meeting in October, containing updated performance data.

The July and October presentations provide an opportunity to examine the figures behind the announcement and establish whether the original claim remains accurate in light of the more recent data.

Geographical breakdown not available

The Harrogate Informer also asked for a geographical breakdown of the people supported by the commissioned services, including how many had received assistance in different parts of York and North Yorkshire.

Rebecca Proctor, senior communications officer for media and engagement at the York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority, said the authority could not provide this information because doing so could risk identifying individuals.

Rebecca Proctor, senior communications officer for media and engagement at the York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority: We are unable to provide geographic breakdown of the individuals supported, as doing so could risk identifying those individuals.

The authority said it was in the final stages of preparing an annual report, which was awaiting sign-off and might provide further detail.

Without a geographical breakdown, the regional total does not show how many people received support in individual communities, including Harrogate, Knaresborough and Ripon.

Measuring the impact of prevention

The Combined Authority’s announcement presents the crime reduction figure alongside the number of people supported by its commissioned services.

However, a reduction in crime during the period in which a programme operates does not, by itself, establish that the programme caused the reduction.

Assessing its impact would require evidence about the outcomes achieved by individual services and how their contribution to crime prevention has been evaluated.

The range of commissioned services also means that outcomes will differ. Support for victims of domestic abuse, for example, may be measured through improvements in safety and wellbeing as well as any effect on repeat victimisation.

The information provided so far does not establish how much of the reported regional reduction can be attributed to the commissioned services.

Further information awaited

The Combined Authority directed The Harrogate Informer to the Office of the Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner’s website for further information about its commissioned services.

The authority also provided links to the July and October performance presentations following questions about the crime reduction figures.

Its forthcoming annual report may provide further information about the services and the people they support.

The effectiveness of the prevention programme, the evidence behind its reported contribution to crime reduction and the geographical distribution of support remain important questions for assessing its impact across York and North Yorkshire.

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