(Image: PA)
A Labour government in Westminster should always have been a problem for the SNP, especially a deflated, too-long-in-government SNP which had failed to deliver on many of the left-wing policies it had promised. But Keir Starmer was so deeply unpopular north of the border he failed to lay a blow.
Despite declaring that Scotland would be the beating heart of his government, he had no understanding of, or vision for, the country. Nor did he back socially-conscious policies that chimed with SNP voters.
On Brexit, on the two-child-cap, on Gaza, on everything but Ukraine, he was an ideological chasm away from hitting the SNP where it hurt. On independence, which continues to be an issue for a significant proportion of the population, all he really said was: “No”.
And then along came Andy Burnham, the so-called King of the North, with an innate sense of what it means to feel aggrieved by the democratic deficit of Westminster, and a determination to plant his flag on John Swinney’s turf. Already, the political sands appear to be shifting. It is too early to tell which party will benefit most, but, if the stasis of the last five years is upended, it can only be good for the country.
That stasis has been caused both by the SNP’s obsession with haggling for a second referendum and Westminster’s implacable resistance to conceding any circumstances in which it might, once more, be on the table.
As a result, we have been living in a time loop in which day-to-day policy-making has played second fiddle to arguments (and legal actions) over Section 30 and default referendums. Every General and Scottish election, we have the same tired old debate on whether a pro-indy majority represents a mandate for another plebiscite.
Burnham has burst on the scene with an agenda much more in tune with the priorities of SNP voters. Indeed, at last month’s Labour Party conference he announced an overhaul of social care, which is arguably inspired by Scotland’s free personal care model. He is also focused on ending rough sleeping and on expanding social housing.
These are all England-only policies because they relate to issues that are devolved, but they signal much about the closer alignment of his values. Ditto, his rapid shift on Gaza, introducing sanctions against illegal Israeli settlements.
FM John Swinney at his party's conference in Aberdeen on Saturday (Image: Agency)
Burnham in the polls
WE know all this is making an impact thanks to a recent YouGov poll which shows Burnham holds a +9 favourability rating in Scotland, and a +15 favourability rating amongst SNP voters. This compares with Swinney’s -19 favourability rating in Scotland (though 82% of SNP voters view him favourably).
Moreover, Burnham has his eyes firmly fixed on Scotland and on Swinney, and not merely in the kneejerk, defensive, crawl-back-into-your-corner kind of a way the Scottish public has grown used to. He is trying to sell a vision of a Union in which ordinary Scots will prosper, and he has been doing so, with no little chutzpah, in the heart of the central belt on the most important weekend of the SNP’s year.
Even as its delegates gathered for its annual party conference in Aberdeen, there he was in Motherwell offering John Swinney the opportunity to work with him to introduce a new form of regional government and to empower communities.
It’s a clever ploy on multiple levels. It homes in on and exploits the central paradox of the SNP’s long reign - that it demanded devolution for the country, then sucked all the power to itself in Edinburgh, creating exactly the same potential for grievance as it has mined throughout its history.
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Not only do those in Scotland’s north feel as removed from Holyrood as Manchester does from London, but some of Glasgow’s current malaise can be attributed to the shift of money and resources eastwards. The same YouGov poll suggested 50-53% of Scots now believe the SNP is out of touch and serving its own interests.
Burnham claimed he wasn’t trying to score points, while absolutely scoring them. He massaged grassroots egos by pointing out his Live Well plan was partly based on the Easterhouse-based charity Fare Scotland, while condemning the party of government’s failure to tackle inequality. (It’s only right to point out, here, that Fare Scotland is mostly government-funded.)
Drug deaths
WHERE we Scots are used to our country being portrayed as a negative outlier – highest per capita drug deaths/lowest life expectancy in western Europe etc – and that portrayal being used to further political agendas, Burnham presented Scotland’s problems as an integral part of the UK’s problems, and something the UK government ought to be proactively engaged in. It may be politics, but it’s the kind of politics we haven’t seen for a while.
The canniest part, though, was to turn what was effectively an incursion into a grand gesture of conciliation. In the last decade, the relationship between Labour and the SNP has been one of tribal warfare – something that has played to the SNP’s electoral advantage.
At the Labour Party conference, Burnham seemed to be preparing to chart the same course. He took a swipe at Swinney for claiming, on the day of his father’s death, that he would be the last Prime Minister of the UK. (Swinney did not know Burnham’s father had died at the time he made the jibe.)
But this mollifying “let’s work together to build a better Britain, mate” strategy is much more effective, and gives the SNP less room to manoeuvre. “My message to John is simple: I want to push economic power out into the regions of Scotland. Do you? Do you?” he asked. What else can Swinney say without seeming petty, but: “Yes”? And indeed both he and Stephen Flynn have made positive noises. Yet if they do successfully collaborate, then it will be more difficult to posit Westminster as the enemy.
Even if Burnham’s motives are utterly cynical, good things may come of this. The fact he is pushing a positive vision of Scotland within the Union will force the SNP to sell a more positive vision of an independent Scotland, something Swinney has already recognised. He went into the conference promising a shift from the fixation with the process for delivering independence to the reasons for achieving it, something that is long overdue.
He has also come up with his own plan for the reorganisation of local government, although this has been widely criticised as hurriedly thrown together and ill-thought-through.
Quid pro quo deal
AT the same time, if Swinney does agree to work with Burnham, he could legitimately ask for a quid pro quo: the establishing of Northern Ireland-style pre-conditions which, if met, would trigger a second referendum. Ideally, those pre-conditions would be more clearly defined than in Northern Ireland.
Burnham wouldn’t be drawn on this issue on his brief visit north, saying only it was time to “move beyond the constitutional questions.” But he must know establishing a trigger point is one way to do that.
The fact SNP MP Chris Law raised it as a possibility at Prime Minister's Questions, and Burnham fleetingly agreed it would be a good idea (before backtracking the following day) suggests it’s already out there in both the SNP and Labour ether.
In Scotland, too, new Scottish Labour leader Michael Marra appears to be taking a more consensual approach than his predecessor, proposing a cross-party commission on child poverty and supporting a motion which agreed the country had the right to choose its own constitutional future.
Whether any of this has a long-term impact depends on each party successfully raising its game. For Labour to gain traction it will have to deliver on the regeneration it is promising. For the SNP to win a second referendum it will have to juggle better governance with carrying out the groundwork on issues like the currency, borders and the economy which worried middle-ground No Voters last time.
But for the first time in a long time, it feels as if the conversation is changing and there are new ideas in play. That’s a welcome start.