(Image: Derek McArthur)
After winning his own mandate, this conference speech was John Swinney’s attempt to step out from the shadows of his predecessors. But on the question that still defines the SNP, remarkably little has changed.
There were big announcements on transport, a confidence pitch about his government’s record and relatively little looking backwards.
The question is whether, once conference fever has subsided, those SNP delegates will still believe it.
More importantly, will the people Swinney knows he still has to win over?
“Friends, we are winning. One by one, the stars are aligning in our favour,” Swinney told delegates as he declared that the campaign for a second Scottish independence referendum had already begun.
There is reason for confidence, of course. The SNP remains comfortably the largest party at Holyrood after May’s election, albeit with 58 MSPs rather than the majority Swinney had sought.
He also points to turmoil elsewhere. Westminster parties are weaker at Holyrood. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now have first ministers who support the principle of self-determination.
And Andy Burnham’s intervention on another independence referendum gave SNP strategists something they have wanted for years: a senior Labour figure engaging with the question of how another vote might happen.
Swinney clearly believes Labour is rattled.
It started 12 years ago.
At the SNP’s media reception on Friday, he joked about journalists abandoning conference to cover the Prime Minister in Motherwell, suggesting the timing showed there was “maybe some panic around”.
There has been dissent within the SNP over the independence strategy on the lead up to conference.
If Burnham's intervention was intended to put a dampener on the SNP's independence push, it certainly did not feel like it in Aberdeen.
Read more
- The SNP's internal independence divide won't disappear after party conference
- Why SNP activists think John Swinney missed the best independence opportunity yet
- Swinney says the 'stars are aligning' for independence but polls show Scots split
- SNP to push for independence vote even if they fall short of Holyrood majority
- Inside the private SNP meeting where John Swinney hit out at independence critics
But the campaign for a second referendum began 12 years ago and little has changed since.
For all of the talk of stars aligning, the independence debate is stubbornly stuck.
Swinney cited an SNP-commissioned Survation poll putting Yes on 54%, eight points ahead of No. Another Survation poll commissioned by the party put Yes at 52%.
But other polls produce an opposite image. YouGov put No on 53%, while More in Common put support for remaining in the UK on 52%.
Scotland remains closely divided on its constitutional future, just as it has been for years. For those desperate for indyref2 – and those fearing it – Swinney’s stars are merely another political soundbite.
After Swinney's speech, I asked his official spokesman what level of support the First Minister was actually trying to reach.
There wasn't one.
“We’re not setting a specific number on that right now,” he said.
Pressed again, the answer remained the same: “We’re not setting a percentage.”
That matters. The SNP has launched Choose Scotland specifically to persuade undecided and No voters.
First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney with party members and candidates (Image: Jane Barlow)
But if there’s no measure of how much support must grow, how will anyone know whether the strategy is working?
That question becomes even more important after Burnham’s intervention. His argument appeared to open the possibility of another referendum where there was clear and sustained support for one.
The SNP insists that support exists.
Yet its own leader cannot say what level of public backing would demonstrate it. That contradiction needs to be answered.
Swinney has unquestionably put the SNP back into a stronger electoral position. He also acknowledged something many within his party have been complaining about for too long: independence will not be delivered by repeatedly convincing people who already support it. The argument has to reach beyond the SNP and persuade voters who remain sceptical.
Those I spoke to tell me Swinney is the obvious man to take the independence cause forward.
One activist I spoke to told me John Swinney does stand out from his predecessors on independence.
“Every SNP leader has believed they’ll be the one to deliver independence, and they do believe it but Swinney’s plan is credible. He’s answering the difficult questions and standing up to Westminster better than anyone has before.”
Another represented the growing faction who are disgruntled at the lack of pace. They said: “This is exactly the same as we’ve always had. There is no credible plan. We’re stuck in limbo and no one wants to be honest about it.”
Alex Salmond told Scotland independence was close. Nicola Sturgeon said it was. And Humza Yousaf followed suit. Now, Swinney tells us the stars are aligning.
But all four leaders have been saying the same thing for more than a decade.
If Swinney really wants to escape the shadow of his predecessors, he will have to do more than tell Scotland independence is getting closer. He will have to show that it actually is.