(Image: Jane Barlow)
John Swinney will tell the SNP conference that the "stars are aligning" in the campaign for independence.
The First Minister will claim "unionists are united in their panic" and that "the wind is now firmly in the sails of Scotland's independence movement".
However, a slew of polls published this week shows the country is still split when it comes to the constitution.
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While a Survation poll commissioned by the SNP found 52% in favour of independence, a YouGov study found 53% would vote No, and More in Common put support for remaining in the UK at 52%.
There is, however, some agreement around how much of a priority independence is for Scots.
YouGov found only 17% think it is one of the top issues facing the country. More in Common found just one in ten put it in their top three issues, ranking it twelfth, and cost of living was named six times as often.
A separate Survation poll for Scotland in Union found 68% put cost of living in their top three priorities for the Scottish Government, against 11% for another referendum.
In his speech to the party faithful, Mr Swinney will nevertheless argue that the "stars are aligning in the campaign for independence".
He is expected to say: "Conference, because we won the election – and because we won the trust of people in Scotland – we can now do two things.
"Improve people's lives here and now. And build the best possible future by delivering Scottish independence.
"Make no mistake – if we had lost the election this year, if we were out of power – then the independence cause would have been set back decades.
"That's why our opponents threw absolutely everything at us. But we refused to be blown off course.
"And as we stay true to our values, our beliefs and our founding mission.
"Now, our opponents are becoming ever more desperate. Ever more personal. At times, ever more ludicrous.
"That is because they can see what everyone else can see.
"Friends, we are winning. One by one, the stars are aligning in our favour.
"In Holyrood – the Westminster parties are weaker than they have ever been.
"In Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast – every First Minister now supports our nations' right to self-determination.
"In Westminster – unionists united in their panic."
John Swinney introduces Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth ahead of her speech at the Scottish National Party (SNP) annual conference (Image: Jane Barlow/PA)
The First Minister will say that 2026 has been a "turning point in Scotland's journey towards statehood".
"And there is no turning back," he will add. "The SNP is making the weather. And make no mistake – the wind is now firmly in the sails of Scotland's independence movement."
Legally, any vote on Scottish independence requires the agreement of the UK Government.
The Supreme Court made that position unambiguously clear in 2022 when five justices ruled that Holyrood could not hold a second referendum without Westminster's consent.
Shortly after he became Labour leader, Andy Burnham appeared to shift the UK Government's position on holding a second vote on the constitution.
Speaking in the Commons, he said Scotland's constitutional arrangements were "exactly the same" as Northern Ireland's and that there can be a vote when there is "clear consensus".
Mr Burnham's press secretary later insisted there had been no change in position and that a vote on independence was "off limits".
There was also confusion on Friday at a press conference in Motherwell, when Mr Burnham failed to rule out a vote for the duration of his premiership. Again, sources close to the Prime Minister told the Telegraph that there would be no vote for as long as he was in No 10.
The First Minister goes into conference with the public divided on him. YouGov found 53% of Scots see him unfavourably and 34% favourably, a net rating of minus 19.
More in Common found 30% think he is doing a good job. That is below Mr Burnham on 35%, who is also the most popular UK party leader in Scotland.
Voters like him more than they rate him. More in Common found Scots are more likely to say Mr Swinney respects the people of Scotland than they are for any other leader, and describe him as "trying", "honest" and "trustworthy". But it also found Scots prefer Nicola Sturgeon's time as First Minister to his by 28% to 17%. Voters call him a decent man who lacks the "fire in his belly" of his predecessors.
The party is, however, not in trouble at the ballot box. More in Common has the SNP on 36% for Holyrood constituency votes, little changed since May. It also has the party on 30% for Westminster, six points ahead of Labour. The SNP has held on to 83% of its 2024 voters.
But the SNP's lead rests on a divided opposition rather than on enthusiasm. Turnout in May was 53%, ten points down on 2021. In the seats the SNP held, its average vote fell from 18,231 to 12,729 – a drop of more than 5,500 – while Reform UK gained 5,357 and the Conservatives lost 4,490.
More in Common found 62% of Scots think things are getting worse in Scotland, with 53% saying the SNP feels like "more of the same".
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Approval of the government's handling of the cost of living stands at minus 54. YouGov found most Scots view the SNP as out of touch, untrustworthy and serving its own interests.
Responding to Mr Swinney's speech, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay said: "John Swinney is like a broken record. All he wants to talk about is his obsession with breaking up the UK."
He added: "Meanwhile in the real world Scots want to see him bring down their bills and fix crumbling public services. The Scottish Conservatives understand the seriousness of the threat from this star-gazing separatist to our country's stability, security and prosperity."