Blocking Rosebank would cost £11bn, campaigners say as decision looms

Refusing permission for the drilling of the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea would mean thousands of lost jobs and cost the UK economy almost £11 billion over the next decade, its developers have said, as a Government decision looms.

But the project is fiercely opposed by environmental campaigners, who argue it would exacerbate climate change by increasing the UK’s carbon emissions, and that the oil should stay in the ground.

The last Government pledged in the 2024 manifesto not to approve new oil fields, but Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he would be ‘pragmatic’ over the decision, leaving many to speculate that a positive deicision was likely.

Yesterday, research for Adura – the company behind both the Rosebank oil field and the Jackdaw gas field – finds that the “UK North Sea stands at a critical juncture”.

The Jackdaw gas field is located 150 miles east of Aberdeen, while Rosebank – the largest untapped oil field in the North Sea, lies some 80 miles north-west of Shetland.

New analysis by Public First – which was commissioned by Adura – found that approving Rosebank and other planned fields would support £35.3 billion in UK GVA between 2026 and 2035, compared with £24.5 billion if key oil projects do not go ahead – a difference of £10.8 billion.

The number of jobs supported would fall from an average of 13,860 a year to 10,530, meaning 3,330 fewer jobs across the UK economy every year.

Meanwhile, consenting to both Jackdaw and Rosebank could provide the UK with a £4.1 billion boost to tax revenues over the next decade.

Neil McCulloch, chief executive of Adura, said: “This report puts a clear price on leaving viable North Sea resources from existing licensed fields in the ground.

“Failure to approve Rosebank and other planned developments would mean billions of pounds less economic value for the UK and thousands fewer jobs supported every year.”

More than half of the jobs supported by Adura are estimated to be in Scotland, the report states.

Mr McCulloch added: “Jackdaw and Rosebank are two of the most important investment decisions now facing the UK. Their impact will be felt well beyond the projects themselves, across the supply chain, the wider economy and the public finances.”

But Katherine May, head of Oxfam Scotland, said: “It’s hardly surprising that a report commissioned by an oil company concludes that more drilling is a good idea.

“Asking it to assess Jackdaw and Rosebank is like asking a seagull whether chips should be left unguarded.”

She said that “conspicuously absent” in the report was “any serious reckoning with the cost of climate breakdown”, with Ms May stating: “The UK’s own climate advisers warn that climate change is increasingly threatening the country’s prosperity and security, with costs that could run to tens of billions of pounds a year by mid-century.

Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh told MPs she could “not go into the specifics of consenting decisions that are quasi-judicial”.

But she added: “What I would say to the House is that we are trying to make those decisions at pace."