(Image: Derek McArthur)
This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politicsnewsletter.
Andy Burnham’s decision to visit Scotland in the middle of SNP conference week was always going to annoy the SNP.
Their response, inviting the Prime Minister to P&J Live for their gathering, is a smart bit of political theatre. But it is also a trap.
Burnham’s anticipated appearance in Scotland is a real headache for John Swinney’s team.
Labour has chosen a moment when the SNP wants the spotlight on themselves and put the Prime Minister right in the middle of it.
The invite is an attempt to turn that back on him.
The clever thing about the SNP’s invitation is that it costs them almost nothing.
If Burnham declines, they can accuse him of ducking the argument. If he accepts, they get the Prime Minister on their stage, answering their questions, during their conference. Either way, they get a story.
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If Burnham accepts, he risks looking like he has been bounced onto the SNP’s stage.
He is Prime Minister. He does not need to walk into an opposition conference on their terms, especially when Labour has already created its own platform for him.
It would also dilute the point of Friday’s speech. Labour wants Burnham to control the setting, the message and the headlines. Going to SNP conference hands some of that control back.
There is another reason for Burnham to stay away: simply turning up would mean more attention for the SNP’s conference. The presence of a serving Prime Minister would guarantee attention far beyond anything the party could generate on its own. Why give them that gift?
And the terrain is loaded.
The SNP conference programme includes debates on devolution, oil and gas and the constitutional question - exactly the areas where Burnham and the SNP are already at odds. A motion even names him directly in the context of further powers for Holyrood.
That gives the SNP endless opportunities to turn his appearance into another row over independence, immigration powers or the North Sea.
There is also a danger in simply accepting the SNP’s framing. The event is built around their argument that Scotland’s constitutional future should dominate the week. Burnham may decide he is better off refusing to let them choose the question as well as the venue.
Now, there is an argument for calling their bluff.
A Prime Minister walking into hostile territory could look unusually confident. He could hear SNP arguments first hand, test his own case and perhaps improve relations with ministers he still has to work with.
And if he outperformed Swinney on the SNP’s own stage, it would be deeply embarrassing for the First Minister.
But the risk outweighs all of that. If he has a bad moment, gets booed or is caught out on policy, that is the clip the SNP will play for days.
He can also prove himself elsewhere.
The SNP would inevitably accuse him of running scared, but that charge is harder to sustain when he is already coming to Scotland to make his argument publicly. Declining their invitation is not the same as declining the debate.
Burnham does not need to win the second stunt.
The SNP needs him inside the hall more than he needs to be there.
The smarter move is to politely decline, give the speech Labour has already planned and leave the SNP dealing with the fact that he managed to muscle into their conference week without ever walking through the door.