(Image: Derek McArthur)
This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politicsnewsletter.
Just a few months ago, Nicola Sturgeon delivered a stark warning to the SNP over the electoral threat posed by the Scottish Greens.
The former first minister argued her party had been lucky the Scottish Greens did not contest more seats at the Holyrood election. Sturgeon praised the party for bringing hope to the election and warned the SNP against abandoning the policies the Greens could exploit.
That is why one decision ahead of SNP conference this week is so baffling.
At a time when the SNP can barely maintain a united front on independence within its own ranks, it has given one of their biggest electoral threats a platform to win over activists from its own conference.
Gillian Mackay, the co-leader of the Scottish Greens, will take to the conference stage to discuss the future of independence alongside Believe in Scotland founder Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp and former SNP MP Tommy Sheppard, just hours before John Swinney delivers his keynote speech.
That may appear reasonable. But the problem is that the SNP and the Greens are not simply independence allies. They are political rivals and often compete for the same activists and members.
It is naïve for the SNP leadership to convince itself otherwise.
While the SNP remains the dominant force in Scottish politics, its vote share fell by 9.5 percentage points on the constituency ballot and 13.1 on the regional vote. But the Greens enjoyed their strongest election result yet, increasing to a record 15 MSPs.
For years, the SNP enjoyed an almost unrivalled position within the independence movement. But now, it struggles to hold together its own core members on its constitutional strategy.
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The lead up to the party’s annual conference, which begins on Thursday, has been dominated by infighting over independence. Grassroots members claimed the leadership were seeking to silence their concerns.
Many activists heading to conference feel the SNP has become trapped in a cycle of caution. Instead of charting a way forward on independence, they fear ministers have spent too much time managing expectations.
That is precisely the environment that the Scottish Greens find their opportunity.
Aside from the fraternal address for the Welsh Plaid Cymru leader, the SNP does not typically share its main conference stage with other political parties, especially not ones that can win over its voters.
Unlike the SNP, the Scottish Greens have positioned themselves as the more uncompromising voice within the independence movement. They have sought to win over younger and more progressive voters who often feel frustrated by the SNP’s governance.
Ms Mackay herself has previously stated that former SNP supporters have been moving towards the Greens.
The SNP also risks angering its members in Aberdeen by giving a platform to a party that opposes oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
It is hard to see how political advisers to the SNP have got this so wrong. Perhaps they believe the benefits of displaying unity across the Yes movement outweighs all of the other risks.
The SNP’s biggest challenge heading into conference is convincing frustrated members that it still has the vision and urgency needed to deliver independence.
If conference is meant to rally the faithful, the SNP has chosen a risky way of doing it.
What a political gamble to take.