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The chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) has hammered home the opportunity for the industry in the “world’s largest whisky market”.
But he warned that its recovery in the US following the damage caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs will not happen “overnight”.
Mark Kent was commenting on the global outlook for the Scotch whisky industry during what continues to be a volatile period for distillers in key export markets.
The Scotch whisky industry received a major boost in July when, following a state visit by the King and Queen to the US, President Donald Trump announced the removal of the 10% import tariff on Scotch whisky that had been in place since April last year. The tariff, which was part of a baseline tax of 10% on exports of most UK goods to the US, was estimated to have cost the industry around £150 million of lost exports during 2025.
While new figures from the SWA show that the overall value of Scotch whisky exports rose by 2.9% to £2.48 billion in the first half of the year, the value of exports to the US fell by 10%.
Mr Kent said: “The US remains our largest market and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
“Exports to the US have declined. We were at around £1 billion and are now at approximately £930 million [for 2025], which represents an 8% year-on-year fall. That's not solely due to tariffs; market conditions in the US have also been challenging.
“The removal of tariffs is extremely welcome and should feed through over time. I would hope that by the end of the year we'll see a stronger picture in the US, but these things do not change overnight.”
Mr Kent was meanwhile upbeat about the prospects for Scotch whisky in India, following the signing of a Free Trade Agreement between the UK and India. The SWA, Salmon Scotland and Scottish food and drink companies including Walker’s Shortbread today joined a UK Government trade mission to India in light of the FTA coming into effect on July 15. According to the UK Government, the agreement will deliver a £190 million boost to the Scottish economy and cut whisky tariffs from 150% to 40% over 10 years.
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India is the world’s largest whisky market by volume, with more than 220 million bottles exported to the country every year.
Mr Kent said: “India is another major opportunity. It's the world's largest whisky market. The key challenge has been the 150% tariff, which has now fallen to 75% and will reduce further to 40% over the next 10 years under the trade agreement.
“That is a significant positive. There are still state-by-state regulatory issues to navigate, but the agreement opens up opportunities, particularly for smaller Scotch whisky producers who may previously have regarded India as too difficult or expensive a market to enter.
“One of our next priorities is helping those smaller members establish a foothold there while continuing to address market access barriers and build stronger relationships with the Indian whisky industry.”
Mr Kent added: “Europe remains reasonably stable. Across Asia we're seeing encouraging signs in a number of markets, including China, Japan and South Korea. The recovery is not uniform, but there are positive developments.”
The SWA has in recent weeks been ramping up its calls for the UK Government to cut spirits duty in Chancellor John Healey’s first Autumn Budget on October 28.
UK spirits duty has increased by 17% in the last three years but, instead of boosting Treasury coffers, the SWA said it has led to a fall in revenue for the Exchequer while adding to the pressures facing distillers and companies in the supply chain.
Mr Kent said there is “no logic” to taxing whisky more heavily than beer, wine and cider, arguing that UK spirits duty is the highest in the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialised nations and among the highest in Europe.
“Spirits pay proportionately far more duty per unit of alcohol than cider, beer or wine,” Mr Kent said. “That hits Scotland particularly hard because around 70% of all UK spirits are produced here, much of that being Scotch whisky.
“We've consistently said there is no logic to this disparity. When you look at how people consume alcohol, why should someone choosing to have a dram pay significantly more tax than someone drinking a pint? We want the Treasury to address that issue.”