Analysis: Tories upbeat with Kemi Badenoch popularity despite quiet conference

Kemi Badenoch is currently significantly more popular than her party.

When Kemi Badenoch takes to the stage at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham tomorrow, it gives her a rare chance to speak directly to the country.

Unlike most of time, when the spotlight is intently trained on the Government, the conference season sees the media focus on the opposition parties as well.

Mrs Badenoch will seek to lift the party up to her own level of popularity, which has now outstripped Conservative support.

She is likely to continue the theme of tax cut announcements of the week, with a likely change in inheritance tax.

According to pollster More in Common, set up in the wake of Jo Cox’s murder, Mrs Badenoch is now one of only two party leaders with a net positive approval, and Reform voters in particular have warmed to her.

However, of those who say she is doing a good job only a third would vote Tory at the next election.

Attracting Reform voters is a key aim for the Conservatives at this conference.

Many who I have spoken to were particularly buoyed by the appearance of Yorkshire’s own Jeremy Clarkson.

There was a feeling that he could bring back some of the former Tory voters who have drifted over towards Nigel Farage.

Mrs Badenoch told the BBC: “We are feeling chipper because we are going back to first principles.

“We’re not out of the woods yet.” She also added that “people at conference aren’t happy because we’re about to win an election. We’re happy because we know who we are”.

Mrs Badenoch won’t have been pleased by the former Top Gear presenter’s comment on the sparse attendance.

When asked about Mr Clarkson’s quip that “a lot of people have come dressed as seats”, she told Channel 5 News: “I have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. This conference is buzzing.”

It has felt relatively quiet, with quite a number of Yorkshire politicians leaving on Monday, two days before Mrs Badenoch’s speech.

However, in general the mood is much more positive amongst the members than a year ago in Manchester.

Farming and agriculture has once again proved incredibly popular, and the Shadow Environment team have had some beefy policy announcements such as abolishing Natural England and the Environment Agency.

I understand all of this was personally signed off by Mrs Badenoch.

There is also a sign that the Conservatives are open about previous mistakes they made.

In a panel on rural housing, there was a real focus on the need for houses to be built and a drive to move away from the claims from opposition about being Nimbys.

Campaigner James Wright responded to one member’s question about blocking developments by saying “villages are going to become retirement homes” unless houses get built.

However, from a relatively quiet Birmingham with the current polling numbers it still feels as if the Tories are quite a long way from returning to power.