Europe has changed since Britain voted to leave, do we really want to rejoin the EU? - Jayne Dowle
Clamping down on English Channel migrants, easier exports of UK food, drink and cars, freedom of movement for young people, what’s not to like about Andy Burnham’s proposal to move closer to the European Union?
The Prime Minister hasn’t wasted much time floating rapprochement with our continental cousins, hinting that a future Labour manifesto might include the promise of a reset referendum.
Speaking to the BBC, he insisted he wasn’t “leaping” to the idea, but if public opinion was “pointing towards” rejoining the EU he could commit his party towards holding a vote.
Public opinion is already broadly in favour of a rethink at least. More than half (59 per cent) of those asked in the latest YouGov poll backed rejoining, whilst 32 per cent were opposed and 19 per cent were undecided.
Whilst diehard Brexiteers still maintain that their tight victory a decade ago in the EU Referendum - 52 per cent in favour of leaving versus 48 per cent voting remain - should stand, even this cohort must find it difficult to argue that the UK has been an altogether better place since.
No doubt, they would construct an argument resting on the fact that general world turmoil - including the chaos of the Covid years and Russia’s war on Ukraine, right on Europe’s doorstep - has mitigated against our country benefitting fully from independence. A brighter future is coming, they might insist, if only we hang on and dig in.
Yet ask a farmer, ask a manufacturer, an entrepreneur, a student who would like to spend a year or so in Paris, Berlin or Milan, perhaps, or ask a holidaymaker stuck for hours in airport queues jumping through new passport rules, and they will likely tell you leaving the EU has brought us negligible benefits. Indeed, it has made living through these tough times worse.
Give Burnham his due. He is brave to even float the idea publicly. Whilst many of us, including those who voted Leave back in 2016, might welcome a chance to turn back the clock and think differently, this vexatious matter has ended the careers of many politicians before him.
And for a man set on uniting an ever more fractious United Kingdom, he’s taking a risk mooting the idea of re-running the most divisive political event in recent history. He’s also setting Labour up in a direct battle with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Conservatives.
As we all learned a decade ago, nothing can be taken for granted when it comes to sovereignty versus fraternity. Views on Europe don’t follow clear party lines.
At the 2017 General Election, a year after the EU Referendum, research by the academic think tank UK In A Changing Europe found that out of the Conservative candidates standing in England and Wales, 43 per cent (248) voted Leave and 41 per cent (233) Remain. There is no evidence to suggest that in a future referendum divisions would be much different. As for Labour, who knows?
Burnham has always been a Remainer. However, he must be careful what he wishes for, warns the stentorian voice of Andrew Neil, broadcaster, commentator and political columnist, currently taking to the airwaves to remind Burnham and anyone else entertaining the idea of rejoining Europe that times have changed.
Neil argues that the UK would be returning to a "different Europe" from the one it left in 2016, due to the rise of right-wing parties. During a recent appearance on the BBC’s Question Time, pointing out that centrist leaders were in charge of France, Germany and Italy 10 years ago, he thundered: “The political class continue this debate today as if the Europe we left in 2016 is the Europe of today, it's nothing like the Europe of today.”
He has a strong point. Burnham must be careful to not allow nostalgia to cloud his judgement.
As Neil elucidated, “Today, the AfD in Germany, if you want to see a hard-right party, go to Germany. If there were an election tomorrow, the AfD would have more seats in the Bundestag than the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats combined.
“Every opinion poll in France, no matter who she's up against, Marine Le Pen wins next year's presidential election. And, of course, Italy already has the populist right.
“Six or seven countries by this time next year will be run by right or pretty hard-right governments. That's a different Europe.”
Key European countries, all moving rapidly rightwards. Do we really want to be part of that club?
Our Prime Minister is correct to promote a fresh look at our relationship with Europe, but he must accept the biggest, realistic picture and be very wary of the law of unintended consequences.