Russia poses real threat to UK as Andy Burnham warned of 'military crisis': Patrick Mercer

Between Fifa’s farrago, Mancunian magic and petrol price paranoia most people have been happy to accept that the war in Ukraine is bubbling along bloodily with Kyiv’s forces gaining the edge.

Well, perhaps that’s right, but what is certain is that the fighting has become much more intense in the weeks running up to Russia’s election to select new members of the Duma (parliament) in September.

Presidents Zelensky and Putin need to influence people profoundly in the days ahead including our own, freshly minted PM.

Russian elections have always been a bit of a joke though, haven’t they? Mr Putin’s United Russia Party is bound to win with this poll installing MPs in power until 2031, covering the next Presidential contest in 2030.

In some ways the sitting government competes only with itself, but any clear decline in support will be interpreted as bad sign for the whole regime.

So this is important for Mr Putin. Since the 2014 annexation of Crimea Vladimir Putin’s job has changed fundamentally from being an elected governor to defacto wartime leader who is above daily politics.

Now the last, four years have brought the whole spectrum of war and the struggle for survival right to the heart of national strategy.

It’s worth bearing in mind that the new, post Soviet Russia was born in war and has known little else. The carnage of a failed campaign in Afghanistan was a crucial factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then remember Boris Yeltsin ordering troops to open fire in the middle of Moscow 1993 and, more recently, the Wagner Group’s uprising in June 2023.

Russia’s volatile and always has been, just ask Tsar Nicholas and his family!

Reflecting this there are at least two, concrete military measures which may come from a good election result. First is the confidence to impose mass mobilisation. The reality is less important than the horror of the press gang calling on ordinary families. There’s already a national call-up, but the Kremlin has relied upon regular (or ‘contract’) troops to fight in Ukraine rather than conscripts.

Certainly, draftees are offered bounties to become regulars and many accept, but Russia argues that if she needs more muscle then contract soldiers who are now reservists will be mobilised first.

Kyiv’s line is rather different and extremely persuasive. The idea that more, hapless 18 year olds are going to be bullied into uniform and sent to die is a great incentive not to vote for Mr Putin’s candidates.

Then comes the Kremlin’s novel concept of creating a political, warrior elite. Veterans are now encouraged to stand for political office a tranche of votes automatically being allocated to them in any election. The idea is to create a caste, utterly loyal to Mr Putin, whose earlier hardships can only add to their political credibility. Any war expenditure, any strategic plans that enjoy their support will have great stature. It’s too early to say how successful this idea will be, but September’s election will test it.

President Putin understands the scars of Russian history and he wields power by a combination of guile and ruthlessness, but he’s learnt the lesson that he must keep his own people on side. Meanwhile, President Zelensky knows that he’s got to smash the morale of those very same people if he wants to wrestle Mr Putin to the negotiating table.

That’s why Zelensky announced a 40 day assault focussed on Russia’s industry and hinterland rather than simply against her forces. The Kremlin’s still trying to assess the effects of the dozens of oil tankers struck by drones in the Azov and Black Seas.

Much more visibly, though, Kyiv’s hit several Wildberries shopping malls and distribution centres a long way from the front lines. Largely undefended and easily identifiable, drone strikes against super markets almost always sets them ablaze creating a spectacularly depressing plume of smoke.

These are trendy, appealing stores which everyone knows and uses - until they can’t. Similarly, scuppered oil tankers mean higher petrol prices and infuriating rationing - none of this may be killing soldiers and sailors, but everyday amenities are being destroyed and the war made tangible, made real to the many whom it has not yet touched.

Whilst it is hardly mentioned in the Western press, Kyiv’s success has caused a serious escalation by Moscow.

Copying Ukraine’s tactics tenfold, Russia has closed Odessa and the lesser ports around it by aerial bombardment. President Zelensky’s stock of air defences has run dry: his cities and factories are vulnerable whilst shoals of glide bombs and missiles have wrecked ships and docks and caused Maersk - the world’s largest container firm - to cease trading with Ukraine.

Ukraine is now effectively landlocked. Put bluntly, unless the trade routes can be restored in the Black Sea, President Zelensky’s people will be bankrupted.

Reflecting all this John Bew, Downing Street’s former chief policy advisor, has warned that Mr Burnham could face an imminent "military crisis" with Vladimir Putin. It’s already clear, though, that our new PM has no more intention of improving the sorry state of our forces than his predecessor, despite Britain continuing to bellow loudest against Russia.

Yet MI6 has just been voted top dog by all the European spy agencies, citing our spooks’ outstanding work against Russia. Similarly, a number of Ukrainian defence firms are quite open about the fact that they’ve relocated to UK to work in partnership versus Moscow.

The Kremlin’s angry and Britain is blamed for much of Kyiv’s success. So how long can it be before something like this week’s drone attack on Leipzig airport is mounted against us? One thing’s for sure: it’ll take rather more than £2 bus fares and a fancy for pork scratchings to cope with that.